Alpha Cycle Intelligence

Track Record

What the ARC Index signaled — and what actually happened. All data is based on real backtest results from 2017 to present.

HOW THE ARC INDEX WORKS

The ARC combines four structural indicators — 200-week moving average deviation (35%), drawdown from ATH (25%), macro liquidity from the Fed balance sheet (25%), and market sentiment via Fear & Greed (15%) — into a single score from 0 to 100. Lower scores = lower risk = better entry. Higher scores = higher risk = reduce exposure.

HISTORICAL SIGNALS

DEEP VALUE SIGNAL Nov 2022

ARC dropped to 12/100 with BTC at $16,500. Extreme Fear (F&G at 10), 76% drawdown from ATH, Fed still tightening — but macro liquidity was bottoming.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

+170% in 12 months → $44,000

+545% to cycle top ($108k)

ACCUMULATION SIGNAL Mar 2023

ARC at 34/100 with BTC at $22,000. Sentiment recovering from extreme fear. 200w MA starting to flatten. Early signs of liquidity expansion.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

+95% in 12 months → $43,000

+390% to cycle top ($108k)

RISK RISING SIGNAL Oct 2024

ARC surged to 65/100 with BTC at $65,000. Euphoria building. Funding rates elevated. Macro liquidity peaking.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

Peaked at $108k → then -45% to $60k

ARC correctly flagged late-cycle risk

CURRENT SIGNAL Now

ARC at 33/100 — Accumulation zone. Conditions mirror early 2023. Extreme Fear. Deep drawdown. Liquidity turning.

HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR THIS ZONE

Historically strong accumulation environment

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The ARC Index is an analytical tool, not financial advice. All returns based on daily backtest data from 2017 to present.

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AlphaCycle Index

STRUCTURAL RISK INDEX (0–100)

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ARC RISK

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/100

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200W MA DEV

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Kraken BTC/USD

DRAWDOWN

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Kraken BTC/USD

FEAR & GREED

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Alternative.me

LIQUIDITY

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FRED (Fed Net Liquidity · weekly)

The ARC Index combines four core market signals into a single risk score (0–100):

■ Trend

■ Drawdown

■ Liquidity

■ Sentiment

Lower scores → historically stronger entry points. Higher scores → historically higher drawdown risk.

UNLOCK FULL METHODOLOGY →

0–29

DEEP VALUE

30–39

ACCUMULATION

40–59

EXPANSION

60–69

RISK RISING

70–100

EUPHORIA

Know exactly whereBitcoin is in the cycle.

Track Record

Know exactly where
Bitcoin is in the cycle.