Alpha Cycle

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Track Record

What the ARC Index signaled — and what actually happened. All data is based on real backtest results from 2017 to present.

HOW THE ARC INDEX WORKS

The ARC combines four structural indicators — 200-week moving average deviation (35%), drawdown from ATH (25%), macro liquidity from the Fed balance sheet (25%), and market sentiment via Fear & Greed (15%) — into a single score from 0 to 100. Lower scores = lower risk = better entry. Higher scores = higher risk = reduce exposure.

HISTORICAL SIGNALS

DEEP VALUE SIGNAL Nov 2022

ARC dropped to 12/100 with BTC at $16,500. Extreme Fear (F&G at 10), 76% drawdown from ATH, Fed still tightening — but macro liquidity was bottoming.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

+170% in 12 months → $44,000

+545% to cycle top ($108k)

ACCUMULATION SIGNAL Mar 2023

ARC at 34/100 with BTC at $22,000. Sentiment recovering from extreme fear. 200w MA starting to flatten. Early signs of liquidity expansion.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

+95% in 12 months → $43,000

+390% to cycle top ($108k)

RISK RISING SIGNAL Oct 2024

ARC surged to 65/100 with BTC at $65,000. Euphoria building. Funding rates elevated. Macro liquidity peaking.

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT

Peaked at $108k → then -45% to $60k

ARC correctly flagged late-cycle risk

CURRENT SIGNAL Now

ARC at 33/100 — Accumulation zone. Conditions mirror early 2023. Extreme Fear. Deep drawdown. Liquidity turning.

HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR THIS ZONE

+134% avg 12-month forward return

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The ARC Index is an analytical tool, not financial advice. All returns based on weekly backtest data from 2017 to present.

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BTC/USD—— · ETH/USD—— · ETH/BTC— · FEAR & GREED— · BTC CYCLE— · ETH CYCLE— · MACRO— · BTC/USD— · ETH/USD— · ETH/BTC— · FEAR & GREED— · BTC CYCLE— · ETH CYCLE— · MACRO—

Live Prices

BITCOIN

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24h Vol —

ETHEREUM

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ETH/BTC —

FEAR & GREED

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Signal —

AlphaCycle Index

STRUCTURAL RISK INDEX (0–100)

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ARC RISK

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/100

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200W MA DEV

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DRAWDOWN

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FEAR & GREED

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LIQUIDITY

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0–29

DEEP VALUE

30–39

ACCUMULATION

40–59

EXPANSION

60–69

RISK RISING

70–100

EUPHORIA

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Real-time ARC Risk Index with 4-component scoring and cycle positioning.

Historical ARC Returns

Avg. 12-Month Forward Returns by ARC Zone — Based on Backtest Data (2017–Present)

Historically strongest entry zone

0–29

DEEP VALUE

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— win rate

— entries

High probability long-term returns

30–39

ACCUMULATION

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— win rate

— entries

Moderate upside, increasing risk

40–59

EXPANSION

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— win rate

— entries

60–69

RISK RISING

⚠️ NO ENTRY ZONE

Historically unfavorable entry point

— entries

Avg -40% drawdown from peak

70–100

EUPHORIA

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— win rate

— entries

Based on weekly backtest data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.

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Cycle Overview

ARC RISK LEVEL

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Cycle Phase

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ST Score

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Tactical

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30–90d Upside

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30–90d Downside

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— ALPHACYCLE INDEX

Days Since Bottom

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DAYS SINCE TOP

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Cycle Top

Oct 2025

Est. Cycle Bottom

Oct 2026

Time Confidence

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Near-Term Outlook 30-90D

NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK 30-90D

CONDITIONS SCORE

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SEASONALITY

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ETH/BTC RATIO

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Component Breakdown

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ARC History

BTC Price + ARC Score

Historische Daten werden geladen (kann bis zu 15 Sek. dauern)...

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ARC MOMENTUM (30D)

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Decision Engine

Suggested Position

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Spot Allocation

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12M Expected Range

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Confidence

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ARC RISK LEVEL — / 100

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Zone History

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Data Sources

Kraken

Alt.me Fear&Greed

DeFiLlama TVL

DeFiLlama Stablecoins

FRED

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Know exactly whereBitcoin is in the cycle.

Track Record

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Bitcoin is in the cycle.